Independent Voting

Jacqueline Salit

2008 The Black Vote

2008 Post Super Tuesday

2008 Pre Super Tuesday

2008 NH primary

2006 Mid-te rm elections

2006 Texas Gubernatorial

2005 New York City Mayoral

2000 NY Senate Race


Sign up and receive free weekly installments of this fun, feisty and philosophical dialogue among two leading independents as they review the top political news. Click here to subscribe.

		The Almost Winners. (May 11, 2008). Today's topics included the continuing dynamics in the Democratic primary while acknowledging that the outcome is pretty clear. Barack Obama will be the nominee but there are questions about how Hillary stage manages her end game. The discussion is also starting to turn, however slowly, towards issues raised by a general election contest between Obama, presumably, and John McCain. In that vein, George Stephanopoulos had Carly Fiorina on as a guest. She's a former CEO of Hewlett Packard, a major figure in the business community and a McCain supporter. Her talking points are to go up against the idea that a McCain presidency is a third term of George Bush. Now, that's a difficult thing to navigate. Certainly Bush and McCain have had their differences over the conduct of the Iraq war. But McCain is also a strong supporter of the war and the American military presence in Iraq. And presumably that's how the American people define whether he's close to Bush or not. So, Fiorina says things like 'Don't think that John McCain is going to be the third term of George Bush. That's not the story at all.' And she focuses on McCain's dislike of Rumsfeld. She explains, 'You know, John McCain spent four years saying that Donald Rumsfeld was the worst Secretary of Defense that the United States of America has ever had.' So, McCain wants to be for the war but not for Bush's war. Can he do that? Do you think that's a plausible case? have handled this better? View this week's edition of Talk Talk

		The 60's Happened. (May 4, 2008). Barack Obama was Tim Russert's guest for the full hour on Meet the Press. View last week's edition of Talk Talk

		Contexts, Normalcy and The Wright Stuff. (April 27, 2008). Congressman Artur Davis from Alabama was part of a "group debate" on the Stephanopoulos show. View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		The "Good, Good, Good," the "Bad, Bad, Bad" and Jimmy Carter. (April 13, 2008). Let's jump in on the discussion about Obama's "elitism." View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		Katrina (Not the Hurricane) Blows the Establishement Cool. (April 6, 2008). There was another round on how the Democratic nomination process is wrapping up. View last week's edition of Talk Talk

		Beyond Boomers (March 30, 2008) It's time to get past the old battles of the 60s, to get past the political categories and allegiances defined by the baby boomer generation. So, says Matthews... View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		Obama, Clinton and the "Deep Down." (March 23, 2008) I'd like to talk about how Barack Obama's speech on race is being talked about. View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		Obama, Contexts, and Bailouts. (March 16, 2008) The Stephanopoulos panel discussed the controversy over Barack Obama's relationship to Rev. Jeremiah Wright. View last week's edition of Talk Talk

		The Starter Isn't Always the Closer. (March 9, 2008) There are a series of cul de sacs that the Democrats are driving through right now and trying to figure out how to get out of. View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		Sitting by the Phone. (March 2, 2008) Let's start with what somebody called the "closing arguments" of the race on the Democratic primary side. View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		Keeping It Lofty. (Feb. 17, 2008) One way of describing the situation in the Democratic primaries is that a partnership between the voters and the Obama campaign team Ã¢â‚¬â€œ an A team Ã¢â‚¬â€œ has evolved to blow out all expectations.. View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		Broder's Caution. (Feb. 10, 2008) I was struck by David Broder's remark when Tim Russert said to him 'What do you see, what's the scenario?' in their discussion about how the super delegates are going to decide things on the Democratic side. View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		Crossing Over. (Feb. 3, 2008) The consensus across the board about the last Democratic debate was that Hillary was at her most vulnerable and Obama was at his strongest in the discussion about the Iraq war. View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		No Holding Back. (Jan 27, 2008) The win on Saturday night for Barack Obama in South Carolina was spectacular. A 2-1 margin over Clinton. Eighty percent of the black vote. Forty-two percent of independents. Twenty-five percent of the white vote. View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		Bill Clinton Off the Leash. (Jan 20, 2008) On "Meet the Press" today Peggy Noonan says: 'It's close and it's undecided, but there is an important difference between the process that's going on in the Republican Party and the process that's going on in the Democratic Party.' View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		Hillary Gets Real(ity). (Jan 13, 2008) Here's one thing that I take away from Hillary Clinton's presentation on "Meet the Press." She frames the campaign between herself and Barack Obama as a choice between "rhetoric and reality." View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		Obama, McCain and the Paradigm Shift. There are two questions going into the New Hampshire primary. Will Obama do what he did in Iowa, meaning he not only wins it, but in the process he destroys the myth of invincibility surrounding Clinton? View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		McCain's No Paradox. Here were a couple of things that interested me. The main refrain is about Obama and Clinton and "change" vs. "experience." View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		Ron Paul and America's Sea Change. (Dec. 23, 2007) As the pollsters and analysts on Meet the Press put it, we're on the eve of the voting and there's no clear front runner on either side. View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		Obama's Strategy Pays Off. (Dec. 17, 2007) The Chris Matthews crew discussed --what else -- Iowa. They talked about how Hillary appears to be losing momentum while Obama is surging. What's happened? View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		Rudy the New Yorker (Dec. 11, 2007) Rudy Giuliani did an hour on "Meet the Press" with Tim Russert. Russert's strategy for the Giuliani appearance was to try to pursue concerns about his judgment and his character. View last week's edition of Talk Talk

		"A Question About Logic" (Dec. 2, 2007) The latest polls on the presidential from Iowa show some slippage. What's being said by some analysts about Hillary Clinton is that the "inevitability strategy" is a good strategy-- until it stops working. View last week's edition of Talk Talk

		"Are The Times They Are A-Changin?" The "Meet the Press" panel discussed the dynamics in the Democratic and Republican primaries. First up was the Democratic primary where the Iowa polls have Obama ahead, Clinton in second place and Edwards in third. Statistically it's a dead heat. View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		"It's Not About Me." (Nov. 18, 2007) I'm going to start by asking you some questions about Hillary Clinton. "The Chris Matthews Show" had a discussion about the demonization of Hillary. View last week's edition of Talk Talk

		Stop Talking. (Nov. 11, 2007) Barack Obama has had a good couple of weeks. At the Democratic Party debate in Philadelphia, Hillary Clinton, the frontrunner, came under fire from Obama and John Edwards, as well as Joe Biden and Chris Dodd. View last week's edition of Talk Talk

		1968 Redux? (Nov. 4, 2007) The roundtable on "This Week with George Stephanopoulos" discussed the Democratic debate last week. It was pointed out that the debate showed "the core of Hillary's vulnerability." View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		Winning, Voting and Ties. (Oct. 28, 2007) The big question on Chris Matthews was: can Obama catch up? The Clinton campaign's strategy from the start was to project inevitability, to bolster Hillary's position and to scare other people out of the race. View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		"Duh"sville. (October 21, 2007) It's ten weeks until voting begins in the presidential primaries. Despite the departure of some candidates, like Republican Sam Brownback, and the arrival of some candidates, like comedian Steven Colbert, the two focal points of today's discussion were the contest between Obama and Hillary on the Democratic side and the contest between Giuliani and more traditional conservative Republicans on the other. View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		Subliminal Messaging. (October 7, 2007) I wanted to begin with John Edwards and his current campaign strategy. Tim Russert just interviewed him on "Meet the Press." View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		Greenspan Changes His Mind. (September 23, 2007) We just watched Alan Greenspan on "Meet the Press." View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		Obama's Vacuum. (September 16, 2007) I'm going to give you a compressed characterization of the debate between John McCain and John Kerry on the war policy and ask for your thoughts. View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		The Politics of Certitude. (September 9, 2007) General Petraeus came back from Iraq to testify before Congress and give his report on the status of the surge. View last week's edition of Talk Talk

		Fred's In, John's Up. (September 2, 2007) Thompson's coming in (to the presidential race) and his hope is that he shakes up the race. View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		Politics of the Absurd. (August 26, 2007) Senator John Warner has come forward with a proposal to begin a drawdown of American troops in Iraq. View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		Karl Rove and the Dialectic of History. (August 19, 2007) Today was "Karl Rove Day" on the talk shows. Rove resigned his position as Deputy Chief of Staff at the White House last week. View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		Fights, Comebacks and Asterisks. (August 12, 2007) "Meet the Press" featured a dialogue between Harold Ford, Jr. of the Democratic Leadership Council (DLC) and Markos Moulitsas of Daily Kos, billed as a debate between the centrist wing of the Democratic Party and the liberal wing of the party. View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		Getting Past the Pros. (August 5, 2007) There were three views offered on the remarks Obama made about Pakistan in a speech he gave at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in D.C. this week. View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		Is There a Big Bopper in the House? (July 29, 2007) The lead story on every show was the Hillary/Obama fight at the CNN/YouTube debate and the follow-up rounds in the days after the debate. This is one description of what the fight was about: New vs. Old, continuity vs. change, war vs. anti-war. How would you define what the fight's about? View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		Check Your Analysandum. (July 15, 2007) John McCain's campaign was a topic, since there was a lot of news this week about changes in his staff. View last week's edition of Talk Talk

		Gravel, Paul, Kucinich: Independent Voices. (July 8, 2007) We watched “This Week with George Stephanopoulos," a departure from our usual line up. He did a feature segment on two insurgent candidates in the Republican and Democratic presidential primaries: Ron Paul, the sitting Congressman from Texas, on the Republican side and Mike Gravel, former U.S. Senator from Alaska, on the Democratic side. View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		Speed Limits. (July 1, 2007) There was discussion of the state of the Republican Party -- and the word is that it -- not good. Senator Richard Lugar withdrew his support for the president's policy in Iraq and was joined quickly by Senator John Warner. View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		Bloomberg, The Icebreaker (June 24, 2007) There's a lot of Bloomberg fever out there...What do you think about the dialogue about nonpartisan politics, about Bloomberg becoming an independent and being a spokesperson for that kind of approach in politics and in government? View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		What's Plan B ? (June 17, 2007) Washington is starting to prepare for the return from Iraq of General Petraeus and U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker (who was on “Meet the Press") in September. View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		Was He Used? "The Chris Matthews Show" had a segment about the immigration vote in Congress and the politics surrounding it. This issue is cast as very polarizing, and in many ways it is. View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		Back to the Future. Michael Murphy, a Republican strategist on the “Meet the Press" panel gave his capsule summary of the presidential election: “If you win the future, you win the election." View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		The Tier Machine. We watched New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson on “Meet the Press." Richardson is one of a number of second tier presidential candidates running in the Democratic primary. View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		Apocalypse Now? Let's start with the Chris Matthews Show discussion about Mike Bloomberg and Chuck Hagel running as independents for the presidency and vice presidency. View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		The Consequences. Let's talk about John McCain who was on "Meet the Press." His position on the war in Iraq is that we've got to focus on what he calls "the consequences of failure." View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		The Unvarnished Truth? George Tenet, former CIA director, was on Meet the Press. Tim Russert tried to discover whether Tenet was an honest broker in the run up to the war or an enabler, someone who crossed over into politics, into marketing, into the business of selling the war to the American people, rather than being an objective analyst of the conditions in Iraq and Iraq's role if any -- in 9/11. Let me begin by asking you whether you accept that framing -- that bright line distinction between honest broker and enabler? View the arhived edition of Talk Talk

		The Year of the Vaccum. The McLaughlin Group pointed out the following statistic: 76% of Democrats are happy with the choices in the Democratic field and only 50% of Republicans are happy. They'd like to see some more candidates. What does that snapshot tell you about where we're at in the presidential race? View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		Explaining Blacksburg. On "The Chris Matthews Show," the panelists put forward four basic explanations for the Blacksburg, Virginia shootings. Let me begin by asking you what your reactions are to these four different explanations. View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		Broken Hearts, Broken Politics. Chris Matthews looks at the financial reports from the presidential candidates...and, of course, observes that Obama nearly matched Hillary in dollars raised and doubled her in terms of numbers of contributors -- 100,000 for him, 50,000 for her. Matthews then asked the following question: "Does this mean that the Democrats are not ready to commit to Hillary Clinton?" View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		No Forgiveness. Charlie Rangel, a guest on "Meet the Press," says he encouraged Obama to run for president and told him you're talented, you're young, you're very bright, you have a lot to give and you'll always regret it if you do it -- grab the moment and run. And, Rangel is supporting Hillary Clinton .... Is this the move of an honest broker? Is this the move of a smart political player? Is it both? View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		The Waiting Game. Last week the House voted 218 to 212 to impose a date for withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq. Now the action goes to the Senate. What's your view of the congressional action on Iraq at this point? Is it important, is it not important? View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		Decision Time. I'm going to start with Richard Perle, former chairman of the Pentagon's Defense Policy Board, one of four panelists on "Meet the Press" discussing the war in Iraq. One would like to say he's the last of the neo-cons, but probably not. Tim Russert asked him 'Has the investment in Iraq been worth it,' and Perle says 'That's the wrong question. You can't ask that..." View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		Topsy-Turvy Times. It's amazing, isn't it? I'm talking about the extremes to which the establishment will go to deny the existence of the independent movement. That's the obvious factor in all of this. The independent movement is more than a third of the electorate, yes? View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		She's Vulnerable. The newest polls show the black vote starting to shift away from Hillary Clinton to Barack Obama. Chris Matthews made the point that this shift undercuts "the inevitability factor"--a major component of the Clinton strategy. View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		Upturns, Downturns and Turnouts. I guess we have to start with the story that everybody in the political pundits' universe is talking about Ã¢â‚¬â€œ the Clinton/Obama collision this week. I have a theory about it. View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		Turning Point? John McLaughlin asked his panelists 'Is this the turning point in the war?' He's referring to the congressional votes this weekend. The House passed a resolution disapproving of the troop surge in Iraq. The Senate was not able to muster the votes, but came within four votes of doing so. Says McLaughlin, 'The tide is turning and this is the hinge moment.' Would you agree? View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		Obama and the Zeitgeist. Barack Obama's candidacy is, potentially, a very big deal for the country. How could it not be very big for an African American man to be running for president? It's not an abstract political issue. It's something we're going to have to be attentive to, hour by hour. I think it's very complicated. View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		The Moral Independence of the Independent Movement. We watched John Edwards on "Meet the Press." He made a lot out of having gone through a process of reflection on the war, that he's come out the other side, and that he's being honest with the American people. Tell me your reactions to him. View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		They're In. And They're Off and Running. If I had to come up with some kind of "vest pocket" description of the shows today, I would say this: There are so many possibilities for the presidency, and so few possibilities for Iraq. That seems to be what the discussions were about. View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		All Alone at the Top? Is George Bush alone at the top? That's a good question and hard to answer. I'll tell you why. Because he's certainly alone on Iraq and what he's done with this war. But today's "alone" is tomorrow's "deal." View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		Presidents, Principles and Politics. Commemorations and discussions about President Gerald Ford were a focus point today, including Ford's pardon of Richard Nixon after Watergate. View last week's edition of Talk Talk

		You Can Change Your Eggs...But. At one point in Tim Russert's interview with Newt Gingrich, who was discussing U.S. options in Iraq, Russert asked him something like "What does real change mean?" View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		Changing Course in Iraq...and in America. It was Baker-Hamilton Day on the talk shows. James Baker laid out the following premise: 'We're not going to win militarily in Iraq. There has to be a political victory. How do you define a political victory? There has to be some kind of national reconciliation.' Let me start by asking - what's your reaction to his premise? View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		Back to the Past, or Deconstructing Arnold. Arnold Schwarzenegger was on "Meet the Press." Here's some of his political approach: It doesn't matter what party you're from, it's all about the people. The reason we've been successful is that we don't look at issues as "Democrat" or "Republican" issues, we're doing the work of the people. Does that make him a new kind of politician? View this archived edition of Talk Talk

		Continuing the End of History. Did independents gain greater political strength off of the results of the election? There's an old saying in politics: Power is what power does. If you don't exercise it, there is no power. Power as an abstraction means nothing. So the answer depends on what independents do. View the archived edition of Talk Talk

		Independents are Controlling the Action. It was the independents that made the war the issue of the campaign. Where else did it come from? It didn't come from the Democrats. It didn't come from the Republicans. It came from the independent movement. View the archived edition of Talk Talk



		Benchmarks or Stenchmarks: It's all a Matter of Semantics. If you listen to the pundits now, they want to make it sound like there are real differences between the two positions (on the war). But, obviously, there are not. Both parties supported the war. They supported all the appropriations. There never was much of a difference between them on this question and there still isn't. View the archived edition of Talk Talk



		The Obama Drama. In addition to the war, another focus on this week's shows was the potential presidential candidacy of Barack Obama. Bob Novak commented that his popularity is a measure of the resistance within the Democratic Party to a Hillary Clinton candidacy. View the archived edition of Talk Talk



		Bush Gets Taken to the Watershed. The Bush press conference announcing adjust-ments in his Iraq policy was a big topic this week. John McLaughlin called it a "water-shed." View the archived edition of Talk Talk



		Moving On. ...the world is moving on. McLaughlin would say that third world (so-called) insurgencies are growing, that the creditability of the U.S. is decreasing, that the balance of power in the world is shifting, that the drive for self-determination in the Arab world and Africa and Latin America is strong. View the archived Talk Talk



		On the Road. Is there such a thing as American moral leadership or American moral standing that is being eroded? View the archived Talk Talk



		Selling the War. The strategy of moving the front of the war on terror to Afghanistan, to Iraq, to the Middle East and off of American soil has been successful. Still, Cheney has to defend the position that this makes us safer in the long-term. View the archived Talk Talk



		The Disconnect . The polls show a huge majority of the American people opposed to the war. . .it seems clear that overall confidence in governmental ability to handle the international situation is eroding, unraveling and weak. View the archived Talk Talk



		Bush's Folly. The political ground is certainly shifting and today's shows are a good indicator of that shift. It's all about recalibrating relative to the war; whether you're a politician who's up for re-election in this cycle, talk show pundit, or a presidential contender. View the archived Talk Talk



		It's Not a Hockey Game. General Barry McCaffrey said that in geopolitical, military and foreign policy terms, the comparison between Iraq and Vietnam is totally fallacious. Do you think that's the case? View the archived Talk Talk



		The Beat Goes Independent and Center-Left. There are two critical things happening. The country is going independent and within the independent movement, the question is, Is it going to be pro-war or anti-war? It's going to be anti-war. It's a center-left independent movement that's emerging. View the archived Talk Talk



		Condi, Castro and Connecticut. "What's going to happen on Tuesday up in CT? I don't know. If I have any prediction to make, it's that if Lamont wins on Tuesday, Lieberman will not run as an independent. View the archived transcript of Talk Talk



		The Men in White Coats. The neocons were effectively saying, 'We're the single superpower. We should make our play, and our play should be where it's in our greatest national interest...' View the archived transcript of Talk Talk



		Who is Coming to the Table? Here are two different views of what's going on in the Middle East ... View the archived transcript of Talk Talk



		The Shadow Knows. Sunday, July 9, 2006. One of the big stories this week was Joe Lieberman's announcement that he's going to petition to run for re-election as an independent in Connecticut, in the event that he loses the Democratic Primary. View the archived transcript of Talk Talk



		Tim Russert, Trotskyite. Sunday, June 18, 2006. There are at least two conflicting opinions from the talk show pundits as to where the country is at on the Bush war policy...They are both stories about polls.. View the archived transcript of Talk Talk



		We Declare. Sunday, June 11, 2006. "Meet the Press" devoted a segment to coverage of the YearlyKos convention in Las Vegas, which is the first annual convention of DailyKos, one of the major liberal political blogs View the archived transcript of Talk Talk



		Hans Blix for President. Sunday, June 4, 2006. There's an argument out there coming from a lot of places.... It goes like this. People are tired of the two extremes. View the archived transcript of Talk Talk

Dr. Fred Newman

Obama's youthquake: Is the Senator Leading a Movement, or Just an Interesting Campaign?
Richard Halicks
Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Obama's "movement" might still founder under the disciplined assault of Hillary Clinton's campaign. But until that time, it is powered in large part by the inexhaustible idealism of young American voters, who are turning out in extraordinary numbers in the Democratic primaries. In Georgia, for example, people 18 to 29 as a percentage of all voters increased from 11 percent in the 2004 primary to 17 percent last week. The increase was typical of other primary states, and in nearly all cases, the majority of that younger vote went to Obama.

CUIP 225 Broadway, Ste 2010 | New York, NY 10007 | 212-609-2800

Sign up and receive free weekly installments of this fun, feisty and philosophical dialogue among two leading independents as they review the top political news. Click here to subscribe.

Sign up and receive free weekly installments of this fun, feisty
and philosophical dialogue among two leading independents
as they review the top political news. Click here to subscribe.